Businesses added 190,000 jobs in November, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, possibly heralding solid gains in the government’s employment report this week after two months of hurricane-related volatility.
The showing matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The Labor Department on Friday is expected to count 198,000 payroll additions in the public and private sectors.
Labor tallied just 18,000 employment gains in September as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma idled workers in Texas and Florida. It announced a booming 261,000 new jobs in October as many of those employees returned to job sites.
But that would still amount to an average 140,000 gains for September and October, well below the 176,000 average during the first eight months of the year. It may be that some people in the hurricane-hit regions had not come back to work when Labor’s survey was conducted in early October and their return could bolster the November total.
ADP tries to forecast Labor’s private-sector total and generally captures similar broad trends but the two tallies often differ significantly.
Friday’s jobs total could be inflated by an acceleration in rebuilding in the hurricane zones and a relatively early start to the holiday sales season, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM U.S.
Education and health care led the gains with 54,000 new jobs. Professional and business services added 47,000; manufacturing, 40,000; trade, transportation and utilities, 36,000; and leisure and hospitality, 25,000.
Construction cut 4,000 jobs despite early repairs in the hurricane damaged areas, a possible sign of ongoing worker shortages in that industry.
“The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which helps ADP compile the report. “There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year,” sharply driving up wages and inflation.
Still, hiring has slowed this year compared to 2016 because the low, 4.1% unemployment rate is making it harder for employers to find qualified workers. Yet the 169,000 average monthly job gains counted by Labor this year are more than enough to continue lowering the jobless rate.
Source: USA Today